모건스탠리의 경고와 SK하이닉스

Morgan Stanley "Winter Looms"
 
Morgan Stanley Downgrades SK Hynix to Underweight with 26% Downside Potential, Entitled "Winter Looms" 
 
"Today, we have conviction that the DRAM tide is beginning to turn for pricing and downgrade SK Hynix to Underweight from Overweight with 26% downside potential to our new price target."
 
"Our peak cycle signposts are flashing red now: Our primary concern is that once the current cyclical boost for DRAM fades, Hynix may be left with a challenged NAND business that is already worsening. Add upside risk to production normalizing, and considering the sharp increase in capex for DRAM and HBM, and we believe risks after 2024 are being underappreciated."
 
A team of analysts including Shawn Kim noted that while memory is still moving higher, the rate of change is approaching a peak as supply catches up to demand. Morgan Stanley's cycle indicator has shifted out of 'late-cycle' to 'peak-cycle' for the first time since 2021, and this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.

They downgraded their industry view on South Korea Technology to Cautious, but noted that Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) remains a relative Overweight as they expect quality/value to outperform on the way down, as it has in the past.

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반도체 시황은 지난번 슈퍼사이클보다 더 클 것 같은데 생각보다 반도체주가 크게 터지지도 않은 상태에서 다시한번 모건스탠리의 반도체주 매도 의견이 나왔다.
 
2021년 Winter is Coming이 발간되었을 당시에는 비록 3개월 후에 리포트 발표 직전 주가를 회복하기는 했지만 그 후로 계속 하락하였고 다시 그 자리에 오는데는 약 2년의 시간이 흘렀다.
 

 
 
그런데 이상한 것은 이번 리포트를 발간한 Shawn Kim이라는 모건스탠리의 애널리스트가 불과 3개월전에는 SK 하이닉스를 모건스탠리 Top Pick에 선정했었다는 것이다.
 
아래 2024년 6월 26일 CNBC 기사를 보자.

 
Morgan Stanley analysts say they are expecting the computer memory sector to hit new highs over the rest of 2024, despite investors “generally” not being comfortable buying such stocks at such lofty prices.

“At mid-cycle we see many new highs being made over the rest of the year. After our recent checks, we see no major issues for memory but a correction may be needed for investors to take advantage of this,” the bank’s analysts, led by Shawn Kim, wrote in a June 25 research note.

“Buying new highs has a better win ratio then attempting to buy at lows ... Stock prices are the present value of future earnings and we see better than expected industry growth and company fundamentals that should be rewarded by investors.”

Aside from their attractive valuations, memory stocks are expected to see a lift in demand on the back of stronger usage of artificial intelligence-powered applications, infrastructure, tools and services, the analysts added.

They predict better-than-expected industry growth and see “company fundamentals that should be rewarded by investors,” also noting certain supply bottlenecks and constant strength in memory prices.

There are several stocks from the sector that the bank likes.

Top pick and overweight-rated stocks
 
SK Hynix, the South Korean chipmaker, is Morgan Stanley’s “top pick." “We think SK Hynix is clearly in a league of its own within the HBM category, and believe it will sustain the best idiosyncratic growth/returns and hold the majority of HBM market share in 2025,” the analysts explained.

Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating for both stocks, with a target of 300,000 South Korean won ($216) for SK Hynix — giving it around 26.6% potential upside from its June 26 close — and 105,000 South Korean won for Samsung, or around 22.6% upside.
 
AI와 반도체주에 대한 의견은 글로벌 IB 사이에서도 엇갈린다. 그 만큼 불확실성이 크다는 것인데 그럼에도 내일 외국인의 매도세가 2021년만큼 크게 나타난다면 SK하이닉스의 주가 약세는 생각보다 길어질 수도 있는데, 여기서도 과거와 다른 점은 이미 외국인의 큰 매도가 과거보다 심하게 지나갔고 오히려 외인의 매수 리턴으로 전향될 수도 있는 위치라는 것이다.
 
물론 단기간에 그렇지는 않겠지만 지금 자리는 굳이 매도를 택하기보다는 시간을 갖고 주가가 더 하락하면 추가 매수해보는 것도 고려해볼 만한 전략으로 생각된다.